Monday, April 07, 2008

Federer here, Nadal there, Djokovic everywhere... plus Davydenko on the side.

For more than three years, Roger Federer and somehow Rafael Nadal dominated the men's draw of the professional tennis circuit. From 2005-2007, they won 11 straight grand slams between them and their #1 and #2 rankings were never threatened by anyone. Early last year, a 19 year old Serbian named Novak Djokovic made an introduction of himself via a finals appearance at Indian Wells and a championship at Key Biscayne - the first two ATP Masters Series events of the calendar. That is the beginning of his ascent up in the charts, leaping from 78th place in 2005 to 16th in 2006 and finally to a career-best 3rd position in the ATP ranking system during the first half of 2007 - bypassing Andy Roddick and other perennial top five players.

After Nole's (Djokovic's nickname) phenomenal year, the race for the top ranking has never been this closer. In the late 1980's and the whole 1990's, having 5000+ ATP points could already secure you of being #1 in the world. But after the results of Australian Open 2008 - where Djokovic defeated Federer in straight sets in the semifinals en route to his first grand slam win, and Dubai ATP Tour event - where Federer exited in the first round while Nadal reached the quarters and Djokovic the semis, came in, Federer (6330) led Nadal (5980) only by 350 points, the closest ever since Federer led Roddick by the same margin back in May 10, 2004. And Nadal (5705), interestingly, led Djokovic (5280) only by 425 points after the latter defeated Mardy Fish to collect his 3rd AMS shield in March 23, 2008.

Okay, before we get drowned with too much statistics, let's not forget Nikolay Davydenko, the consistent yet unlucky player from Russia (he is always in Federer's half of the draw) whose ranking since October 30, 2006 has never been lower than no.5. He reached no.3 spot a week after and is now the constant 4th-seed at every tournament he plays. Have I already mentioned that he recently upset Nadal in the Sony Ericsson Open 2008 (Miami AMS), 6-4 6-2? Now you know...

Going back to the numbers, the Big 3 of Fed, Rafa and Nole is now called the Big 4 - adding Davydenko to the list of potential heirs to the throne of King Roger. All in all, the Big 3 has a combined output of 16 grand slam titles under their belts - 16 out of the last 19 (only Roddick - US Open 2003, Gaston Gaudio - Roland Garros 2004 and Marat Safin - Australian Open 2005 won the remaining 3). Adding Nikolay to the limelight, at least one of the Big 4 contested each of the last 13 AMS final matches since Madrid Masters of 2006 - 11 of which they actually won (only David Nalbandian managed to get the other two - Madrid and Paris Masters 2007 - defeating Novak once, and Rafa and Roger twice).

This week, ATP released its latest ranking (see table below).


It has been a long time since the #1 player led the #2 by less than 1000, and though it's usual that the differences between the nos. 3, 4 and 5 are also more or less 1000 points, the race to the top has never been this exciting. In months' time, or even in weeks', we may welcome a new world no.1 in tennis. It may be Rafa, it may be Novak - more likely Novak.

By the way, almost four months came and went, but the top 2 players have gone without a single title. This just shows that the Big 2 - or even the Big 4, are now vulnerable to the insurgence of the likes of David Ferrer, David Nalbandian, Mikhail Youzhny, James Blake, Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Mardy Fish, Janko Tipsarevic and of course Roddick who all want to spoil the dominance of the Roger, Rafa, Nole and Nikolay.

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Sources: ATP and Wikipedia

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Next Issue: Formula One 2008 Season - Australia, Malaysia and Bahrain GPs in review.

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